005% is the US yearly murder rate

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buy canada goose jacket cheap From reading the case, I am pretty confident that the prosecution and jury just didn’t quite understand canada goose outlet online statistics. The whole case was crucially centered on a very common mathematical goose outlet canada mistake known as the Prosecutor’s Fallacy. Simply failing to understand a fairly difficult to grasp concept of mathematics easily explains canada goose jacket outlet uk this. buy canada goose jacket cheap

canadian goose jacket It’s best explained above, but I’ll give an example. Imagine you come up with a very good canada goose outlet vip test for murderers that is over 99% canada goose outlet accurate: that is, it declares only 1% of innocent people to be murderers, and never declares murderers to be innocent. Let’s say that.01% of people are murderers, which roughly lines up with the real life figure; it’s probably close, since.005% is the US yearly murder rate. What’s the probability that someone who is declared a murderer by this test is actually a murderer? canadian goose jacket

buy canada goose jacket You probably said 99%, since the test is 99% accurate. Most people do. This is dead wrong. In reality, the probability is under.1%. buy canada goose jacket

Imagine a group of 100,000 people..01% of them are murderers..010,000 people means 1 murderer on average. This murderer will definitely be caught by the test. Now, as for the 99,999 innocent people being tested, 1% of them are incorrectly marked as murderers. 1,999=999.99, or basically a thousand. So the probability that any person marked as a murderer by this 99% accurate test is canada goose outlet nyc actually a murderer are 1/(999.99 1), or just a tiny bit under.1 percent.

canada goose deals This is basically what happened in the canada goose outlet in vancouver case: a statistical test returned a 1 in 320 https://www.canadagoosestorevip.com million chance that the 7 patients in her care had died by canada goose parka outlet uk chance under the circumstances. The prosecution, being composed of lawyers rather than mathematicians, thought this meant there was a 1 in 320 million chance that she was not a murderer. This was not a correct application of statistics. But if you thought that there was canada goose outlet us a basically buy canada goose uk 100% chance someone had poisoned 7 people to death in canada goose outlet canada cold blood, including children and some elderly patients depending on her for their survival well, you’d do your damn best to make sure they got thrown behind bars the rest of their lives. canada goose deals

So someone almost got thrown in jail for life because of shitty math.

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Interesting canada goose uk site thought. the power of the EU or UN) and that the pluralism in our societies is something that most people canada goose outlet jackets still hold precious. A full swing towards «populist» (or similar) movements would require further canada goose outlet authentic erosion of the established institutional frameset.

And I like to note that the notion of liberalism equalling to power of capital seems too shortsighted, as liberalism and especially neoliberalism are just as diverse as the varieties of capitalism and should not be equated (although could go hand in hand).

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Canada Goose Outlet Threads about immigration in Europe, especially immigration of brown and black people, attract a lot of canada goose outlet location the far right contingent on Reddit, including a lot from the American far right and also, of course, state sponsored propaganda accounts. Racists and far right loons in Europe tend to be «liberal», but only when it involves policies that they consider help «white» and «Christian» people. Anyone else benefiting from those policies and laws is considered «population replacement» by them. They are also the same people who would be appalled at the death penalty, but will chomp at the bit to kill anyone black or brown that crosses the border. Canada Goose Outlet

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Most of the normal users, as in like the Europeans you would meet daily around Europe, canada goose parka uk don post in the immigration threads a lot, viagra. best price. and their posts usually do not call for mass murdering people and stomping on human rights, as is happening in this thread. That is why /r/Europe seems to be liberal most of the time, as those are the threads most people participate in. Threads to do with immigration or crimes by black/brown people are swamped by the far right contingent of Reddit. Much like threads on crimes by black/brown people in the US are swamped by T_D posters and the alt right.

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21 мая 2014 - Сергей Ермилов - 0 - Новости / Просмотров: 184